Demand research and route selection

Route forecasts use the latest available origin-destination journey data where it exists. This gives the forecast a real passenger-market starting point rather than treating every pair of stations as equally valuable.

A large market is an opportunity, not a guarantee. Your share still depends on journey time, fare value, capacity, timetable delivery, passenger experience and competition from the existing network.

• Estimated demand is the starting passenger market adjusted for the proposed service.
• Capacity shows how many passengers the allocated train can carry.
• Revenue reflects the proposed fare and expected passengers.
• Costs include the route and stock needed to operate the service.
• Required trainsets shows whether the proposed frequency is practical.

Passengers can travel across as many as three service legs when the materialised timetable permits changes at shared stations. Station passenger flows show where people are waiting and travelling, while the route planner lets you compare whether a new direct service is commercially worthwhile.

Journey counts are recorded at the passenger’s final destination, so changing trains increases boardings without double-counting completed passenger journeys.

1. 1Open the route planner and try the proposed origin and destination.
2. 2Compare forecast demand, revenue, costs and trainset requirement with alternative station pairs.
3. 3Set a fare close to the route reference price before judging the forecast.
4. 4Check whether a shared station creates a useful interchange or an avoidable congestion problem.
5. 5Confirm you can staff the timetable with compatible stock and retain sufficient cash for disruption and maintenance.